Mindblown: a blog about philosophy.
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On Chain Metrics
Though Fundamental Analysis is a different discipline to Technical Analysis, they do at times overlap. We’ve already introduced the value of on chain metrics as leading indicators of price change. When looked at in a broader sense, they give invaluable insight into the potential long term success of a project.For cryptocurrency projects that are live…
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Quantifying the Solution
A great example of a bitcoin price model that quantifies the potential value based on its actual function is the Stock-to-flow, created by Plan B for Bitcoin. Being the first cryptocurrency and a completely novel technology it was very difficult to model the potential impact of Bitcoin’s potential as a store of value. Stock-to-flow focuses on scarcity as the…
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Google Trends
One of the simplest ways to evaluate interest in a given cryptocurrency project is using Google search sentiment, which is available via the Google Trends feature. This enables you to look at the historic interest in a search term, and see when the peak of interest was reached. Google Trends uses an index measure, where 100 is…
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Usage & adoption metrics
As part of the description of how a cryptocurrency project intends to solve the specific problem identified, should be reference to data that quantifies both the problem and the solution. Data that quantifies the problem enables you to get a sense of the size of the opportunity and is useful for evaluating before a project is live.…
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Standing on the shoulders of giants
If you are investing your hard-earned money, you need to have confidence in your own decisions but this doesn’t mean you cannot refer to the opinions of others to help validate the claims in a white paper or live project. As the recent WallStreetBets drama highlighted, forums like Reddit can rival professional analysts in terms…
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Validation
Bitcoin’s whitepaper is only nine pages long. Page one is dedicated to articulating the what/why, with the rest of the document – aside from the conclusion – explaining exactly how Bitcoin solves the double spend problem. Those eight pages essentially validate the headline claims, and the devil is always in the detail. A cryptocurrency may…
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What problem is a cryptocurrency trying to solve?
A good place to start with Fundamental Analysis of a cryptocurrency is asking the simple question – what problem is it trying to solve? This may sound obvious, but it is very easy to be seduced by complex language and ambition, without thinking about what a cryptocurrency does and what real world problem it solves. If…
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What is Fundamental Analysis?
What you’ll learn A definition of Fundamental Analysis A framework for analysing future value of crypto projects Ways to quantify ambition & performance of crypto projects The importance of lateral thinking in investing Investing in a cryptocurrency is a very different discipline from Trading in it. Trading attempts to profit from short term Technical Analysis; interpreting…
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Macroeconomic Indicators
Crypto is generally portrayed as being a challenge to traditional finance. Bitcoin’s use case as an effective store of value means that it should have an inverse relationship to key indicators of the health of the system it is intended to replace. You’ll often hear the phrase ‘safe haven’ asset, for example. The reality is…
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Crypto Specific Data Indicators
One of the difficulties of getting into Trading is the sheer amount of time required to understand the techniques used and find a successful strategy that might work. It is not particularly intuitive and there are some who doubt that Technical Analysis even works. Fortunately, there are different sources of information that can act as…
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